Keywords
threshold temperature
heatwave
mortality
temporal evolution
How to Cite
Abstract
Following WHO recommendations for the implementation of Public Health Prevention Plans against the impacts of high temperatures, the heatwave definition temperature (Tthreshold) was calculated in 182 isoclimatic zones (IZ) in Spain. In order to determine it, the data on daily mortality from all causes (ICD-X: A00-R99) in each of the IZs during the 2009-2018 period were analyzed as a dependent variable. The independent variable was the average value of the daily maximum temperature measured during the summer months at the meteorological observatories in each IZ. Box-Jenkins models were used to determine the mortality anomalies, and scatter diagrams were used to link these anomalies to the temperatures at which they occurred. Tthreshold in each IZ was thus determined. The number and intensity of the heatwaves that occurred in each IZ were calculated and their temporal evolution was analyzed over this period.
The results show that in 52.5 % of the IZs, the percentile of the series of maximum temperatures during the summer months to which the determined Tthreshold corresponds was below the 95th percentile of the meteorological heatwave definition; they matched only in 30.7 % of the cases. The geographical distribution of these percentiles shows great heterogeneity as a result of local factors that affect the temperature-mortality relationship. The evolution of the number of heatwaves analyzed shows that heatwaves have increased globally in Spain at a rate of 3.9 waves per decade and that their average annual intensity has increased at a rate of 9.5 °C/decade. These temporal evolution values are higher than those found when the evolution of meteorological heat waves based on the 95th percentile was analyzed. The geographic behavior by IZ of this temporal evolution is also heterogeneous.
In view of the results from this study, it is necessary to use a definition of heatwave that is based on epidemiological temperature- mortality studies and not on meteorological percentile-based values to analyze and prevent the health impact of heatwaves, which is determined by local factors. The temporal evolution of the number of heatwave days and the average annual intensity of these heatwaves based on the epidemiological threshold is greater than that of meteorological heatwaves. This could be minimizing the health impacts that are estimated in the analysis of future impacts that are attributable to heat.
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