Global Change, Populations and Health Risks: A Complex Relationship

Abstract

From the plague epidemics of the Middle Ages to the Ebola epidemic in Western Africa in 2014-15, health emergencies have played a significant role in the history of mankind. However, from the second half of the 20th century onwards, the frequency with which events and situations posing a risk for the health of the population at a global level seems to have increased. During that same period a global change has been taking place in different spheres, including climate, which given the speed with which it is occurring can put humanity’s ability to adapt to the test. In this paper we try to evaluate the links between said global change and the observed change in the pattern of alerts and emergencies of international interest and consider the potential impact of this change of pattern. Although this impact could be controllable in the short term, the complexities of the interrelationships among the different aspects of global change, their potential synergies, and their impact on human health make it difficult to make predictions in the medium and long terms.